The DDFL prides itself on impartiality, as such the commissioner has brought in experienced draft analyst Chaz Stormy to see how each team measures up going into the season.
About the author:
Chaz Stormy is a renowned fantasy football analyst with a PhD in statistics and other things from the Gridiron University. He currently is a freelance writer and full time blogger. His blog Fantasy Football & Boxed Wine is the preeminent Franzia related blog. Can be bribed to give better grades with pictures of your feet.
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Grades are based on expected points* vs draft slot, then multiplied by the value of each draft pick to make higher draft picks more impactful to overall score. K's and DST are not considered. One downside is that it doesn't take roster composition into consideration so teams are not punished for taking, for example, two QBs.
ECR is shorthand for Expert Consensus Ranking from FantasyPros. An aggregate ranking from a large body of fantasy football experts.
Draft grades are great, but they are more about generating value than constructing the best team, this year we will also be giving our initial power rankings for each team.
ECR is shorthand for Expert Consensus Ranking from FantasyPros. An aggregate ranking from a large body of fantasy football experts.
Draft grades are great, but they are more about generating value than constructing the best team, this year we will also be giving our initial power rankings for each team.
Once again the glorious god of the DDFL reigns supreme. Last year was the first year in DDFL history GARF did not take the highest draft grade, being briefly de-throned by Triss. This is another welcome sign that the world is returning to normal. Chase showed his skill and football acumen yet again, consistently generating value at each pick. In fact, outside of the number 1 overall pick (which is impossible to get a positive grade on) he only had 2 picks that were generally unfavorable by our grading. George Kittle in the 4th round, and Deshaun Watson, QB for the Cleveland Browns and professional bastard-man, in the 9th round. The only pick that could be considered a reach is George Kittle, where he was drafted a round earlier than eCR.
The Watson pick is a curious one, on one hand it shows desperation and a lack of ethics, on the other it shows an extreme dedication to winning at-all-costs. If only he could claim James' ignorance of Watson's tiny towel, but alas we can only assume GARF, like many of the Greek gods of old, has a proclivity for sexual deviancy. Biggest concern for GARF is the WR room, although Justin Jefferson and Diontae Johnson may be a strong duo, Chase is one injury away from Weekend at Bernie's-ing out the corpse of Michael Thomas onto the field. Some of the highlights include:
Best Pick - Tony Pollard, RB - 2nd Round - 100%
Worst pick - Deshaun Watson, CREEP - 9th Round - 14% Expected Finish - League Champion |
The former DDFL champ seems poised to retake his place among the competition in the DDFL in 2023. His draft isn't without it's warts, but his grade is ballooned heavily by having Christian McCaffrey drop to him at the 4th pick the second highest graded pick of the entire draft. But just like masturbating with a microwaved melon, there are extremely hot parts, and parts that are as cold as a Siberian labor camp.
Hiller's first five rounds ping pong'ed from brilliance to stupidity and back again. McCaffery in round 1 was brilliance, Tee Higgins in round 2 was the lowest graded 2nd round pick, and in my opinion could've been had in the 3rd. He then followed it up with the great pick of his namesake Joe Mixon in round 3, and then like a stupidity see-saw he took Jordan Addison in round 4, and outside of Eric this was the largest reach in the first 4 rounds 45 picks earlier than eCR. He then crests one more time with the excellent pick of Miles Sanders, a potential breakout a round later than he is being projected. Then another terrible pick in Pat Friermuth in the 6th followed by another good one in Christian Kirk in the 7th. I think this roller coaster is causing brain damage. In the game of fantasy consistency is king, and I don't know if the F'in Catalina Wine Mixon's have it in them this year. Just because Hiller's draft outlook looks rosy, his roster construction leaves a lot to be desired. He currently ranks as the 7th best team in power rankings, largely due to the worst WR corps in the league, and back half of the league in all other positions outside of RB and FLEX. Best Pick - Christian McCaffrey, RB - 1st Round - 99%
Worst pick - Jordan Addison, WR - 4th Rd - 7% Expected Finish - 7th Place |
I didn't leave the draft incredibly enamored with Ellie's draft at first blush, but it is sort of the Tyler Lockett of teams: not incredibly sexy at first glance, but then it's just consistently good. She's that mild mannered unassuming girl in debate class who turned out to be an absolute freak.
She followed conventional draft wisdom of waiting for a TE, K, and DST and that really helped her teams depth and overall strength. In fact although by the numbers she didn't have as good of a draft as Hiller, I do believe she has the stronger overall roster Ellie avoided any big mistakes, and had a really strong rounds 2 through 5 with Josh Jacobs, Josh Allen, Amari Cooper, and Kenneth Walker. What I like most about her draft is that in the middle and late rounds she successfully (albeit unknowingly) took many high upside players like Kenneth Walker, Dalvin Cook, Rashaad Penny, and Quentin Johnson. Her worst pick, looks far rosier only a few days later. In the 7th round she took Dalvin Cook who was still a Free Agent. This was a full round earlier than ECR, but with his signing with the Jets it certainly looks like her gamble paid off. Best Pick - Josh Jabobs, RB - 2nd Round - 96%
Worst pick - Dalvin Cook, RB- 7th Round - 15% Expected Finish - 3rd Place |
Alex came in with a solid 69 grade on his draft. And just like a real 69 it's nice but you can't escape fleeting whiffs of poop, but it's still enjoyable so you might as well ride it out. Unlike most, Alex went heavy on WR in the first few rounds. I love the Cooper Kupp pick; last year before injuring himself he lead the league in FPTS/G even over the number one overall pick Justin Jefferson, and he is only one year removed from his historic 2021 campaign. He was the WR2 on the famous ChazChart™, draft board NOW AVAILABLE TO MY PATREON SUPPORTERS OR VIA SENDING ME A PAIR OF YOUR USED SOCKS.
Chaz Stormy's relationship to math has always been as complicated as his relationship to his cousin Tina. Alex's second round pick is where the math and Chaz disagree. The Amon-Ra pick got a heavy negative grade of -20.8, and he went 3 spots earlier than ECR, but 'lil Stormy perked up to attention when this pick came in. The Sun God is primed for positive TD regression, and with Jameson Williams being nowhere to be found, I don't see him as a threat to St.Brown's targets. Although the Najee pick was one of the top 10 graded picks in this years draft his RB room is the worst in the league (not counting Eric). A lot is riding on James Cook getting an increased workload in Buffalo this year, which I am very skeptical on as Damien Harris has been quietly one of the most efficient runners in all of football since being drafted. I fully expect this DDFL rookie to be vying for a playoff spot! Best Pick - Najee Harris, RB - 3rd Round - 97%
Worst pick - Amon-Ra St.Brown - 2nd Round - 1% Expected Finish - 6th Place |
James goes another year without providing me with a ton of ammo to critique or praise. He consistently drafts near ECR and generates value where he can, a waiting for homer picks at the end of the draft.
I think that this grade is a bit unfair as he drafted Nick Chubb exactly where the model had him with a whopping grade of 0. Since the first round impacts overall grade more than the later rounds. He didn't make any major splash picks either, with none of his picks ranking inside the top 15 picks for this years draft, on the flip side none of his picks rank as among the 25 worst picks in this draft. His team rank is closer aligned to my opinion, being the 4th best team in the DDFL this year. Unfortunately he made a decision that will make his life in fantasy miserable all season. The pick of Kyle Pitts, although it may not rank poorly, is a curse that saps all joy and confidence out of its victim. Quoting noted Pitts-curse survivor Clayton Phillips "I'd rather have incurable poison ivy on my taint then have Kyle Pitts on my roster". Last year 59% of his targets were uncatchable, he finished the TE33 behind such household names as Jelani Woods, Cade Otton, Isiah Likely, and Will Dissley. This is a major bet in Desmond Ridder, and that is like betting that my wife will come back. Best Pick - Saquon Barkley, RB - 2nd Round - 92%
Worst pick - Keenan Allen - 4th Round - 13% Expected Finish - 4th Place |
Best Pick - Aaron Jones, RB - 4th Round - 97%
Worst pick - Stefon Diggs, WR - 1st Round - 2% Expected Finish - Runner-Up |
Sarah might as have well have auto-drafted, but the algorithm she used was written by an advanced stage syphilitic ape. She avoided any big miscues but did not really generate any largely positive grades outside of her first round pick Bijan Robinson. If there was ever a rookie with whom Chaz stormy would gladly carry a child for it would be Bijan. I want to have his Bijanbabies. He is the perfect meld of talent, draft capital, and landing spot, as Arthur Smith still employs a unique brand of antique football that prioritizes the run.
The rest of her roster doesn't make me confident in her ability to return to the playoffs this year. She is hoping Ceedee Lamb usage doesn't plummet with Mike McCarthy calling plays, and Deebo can have another outlier season as he did in 2021. The problem: in 2021 the 49ers didn't have Christian McCaffrey and it's unlikely Deebo gets used in the backfield as much as he did then. In the 8th and 9th Round Sarah went a bit off the rails in selecting Charbonnet and Thielen two to three rounds early compared to eCR. She can't let her hyena-like lady-boner for Thielen die (if you don't understand that reference, Google hyena clitoris and end up on a list). These two picks massively undercut the depth on her roster. In doing so, she missed out on guys like Marquise Brown, Brian Robinson, and Jahan Dotson. This may have made her bench less sexually appealing to her, but stronger as a fantasy football team. Best Pick - Bijan Robinson, RB - 1st Round - 98%
Worst pick - Ceedee Lamb, WR - 2nd Round - 10% Expected Finish - 9th Place |
I hate to have to rank Triss this high. She started with a Debbie-level maneuver that should instantly disqualify her from being eligible for anything other than last place. Last year she let logic and sound judgement dictate her draft, and had one of the strongest drafts I've ever seen. Well it didn't go so well, so Triss decided the well-reasoned and thought out approach was for chumps. This version of Triss is the nastiest of women, driven only by what can be described as hysteria.
The Patrick Mahomes pick 3rd overall was the worst draft pick of this years draft, and that is hard to accomplish when Eric is around. That being said Triss did her best to redeem herself in rounds 2 and 3. The Jonathan Taylor pick graded incredibly well, albeit that was before Taylor decided by-choice to speak with Jim Irsay, and realized he was working for the caricature of a trust-fund coke-head. The only saving grace might be that Breece Hall has the upside to carry Triss, kicking and screaming, to the playoffs. He is a boom or bust pick depending on the New York Jets being good. With Jonathan Taylor's injury and Kamara's suspension Triss is left starting Devin Singletary, the backup RB in Houston of all places, for the first few weeks. This may doom Triss. Despite not having the worst grade she definitely is in the dumpster-tier on the power rankings. Best Pick - Breece Hall, RB - 3rd Round - 99%
Worst pick - Patrick Mahomes, QB - 1st Round - 0% Expected Finish - 11th Place |
Connor in his first year of drafting himself, did not impress in the grades but his grade doesn't reflect his team accurately. He had his hits and misses. Despite getting a poor grade by the numbers, I love the Kelce pick, an argument could be made that Kelce was worth the first overall pick, so getting him with the 7th overall is amazing.
Kelce is one of the few players that can single-handedly carry a team to relevance, the difference between Kelce and the TE2 last year was 89 points, which is the same difference between the TE2 and TE23. While his 1st round set him up for success his RB and WR corps are some of the weakest in the league. Relying on Calvin Ridley (who last played football when the iPod Nano released), Jahmyr Gibbs (whose team historically has been married to a two-RB system), and Dameon Pierce (who might be on the worst offense in football) may sink his chances. The real complaints I have come at the second half of the draft. Taking a DST in round 8 is always a huge mistake, as there was RB talent that he really could have used such as AJ Dillon or Khalil Herbert. This was 97 picks early by ECR one of the top 5 biggest reaches in the draft. One bright spot: I think the Anthony Richardson pick is inspired. He may make Justin Fields look like the next Brady as a passer, but that boy runs as if he is a congressman from Alabama trying to escape from gay thoughts. That major upside makes him well worth his draft position. His overall outlook is somewhat depressed as he is shrewdly streaming a kicker, which he currently doesn't have. Best Pick - Dameon Pierce, RB - 5th Round - 92%
Worst pick - Calvin Ridley, WR - 4th Round - 5% Expected Finish - 8th Place |
Rookie to the DDFL, Audrey Phillips comes with impeccable pedigree, but it did not seem to help her as she begins the dumpster-tier of drafts in 2023. Even so, there are a lot of positives from her draft.
Her draft grade is hugely brought down by the AJ Brown pick in the first round, this is a situation where math just isn't in her favor, as Brown isn't projected as highly and there is heavier weight for early rounds. I don't hate this pick despite it getting a 1% grade. Oddly enough, if you simply swapped the rounds of DeVonta Smith and DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry and AJ Brown, her draft would've looked a lot rosier. Hopkins pick was a big reach. She is also hampered by taking both of the the Eagles WR in the first 4 rounds. It is not impossible for both to put together good seasons but it is unlikely. Generally a menage a tois with two dudes from Philadelphia is something to be avoided unless you want crabs and your bedroom to smell of Cheez-Whiz. That being said DeVonte Smith falling where he did was almost impossible to pass up, was a top 3 steal of the first four rounds, and could provide excellent trade-bait. Despite not taking a second RB until the 6th round I love her RB room. James Conner and Rashaad White both have the potential to be huge volume plays, and White especially has the upside to easily be an RB1 at the end of the year. At the end of the draft she did her biggest reaching. She was another victim of Chief's homer-ism in drafting CEH roughly 4 rounds early, drafted Cole Kmet 2 rounds early. Drafting is part skill and part luck, and although Audrey may still be figuring out the skill portion, she lucked into a pretty good team. A few shrewd trades could have her in the upper tiers of the DDFL as a rookie. Best Pick - Derrick Henry, RB - 2nd Round - 88%
Worst pick - AJ Brown, WR - 1st Round - 1% Expected Finish - 5th Place |
We all know that no matter how bad things look, Donn will somehow make it work and be one of the best teams in the league. He's the herpes of the DDFL playoffs, no matter how under control he may seem he will always be there, waiting to flare up and ruin the orgy. If only his success was as infectious, I'd kiss him so deeply that his uvula would be mistaken for a tether-ball.
Donn's draft is as Chicago as a pigeon eating deep dish out of a dumpster, or the police running a secret black-site torture dungeon. It is littered with Bears and ex-Bears as if Donn had to plant his flag as the only Chicago fan in the league. It's putting a lot of faith in a team that genuinely sucks. Honestly looking at his roster I am not sure Donn knows NFL players that don't play in the NFC North, as just about everyone is or has played for one of the 4 teams. Donn ended up with two players I loved going into the draft, but just a round too early. He took Hockenson with an all important 3rd round pick, which was a huge reach. And then a round later he took Fields a round early in the 4th. Two players I would not be shocked at all ended up as top 5 at their position, but sacrificing too much to get them as he is relying on a backup RB as his RB2 in David Montgomery. He lacks a single really highly graded pick, compared to other teams in the league, making his bad picks stand out. Austin Ekeler might be his best pick, and has been one of the few reliable elite RBs left. Best Pick - Austin Ekeler, RB - 1st Round - 83%
Worst pick - Jaylen Waddle, WR - 2nd Round - 4% Expected Finish - 10th Place (or 1st) |
May god have mercy on his soul. For the sake of me respecting Eric I am going to assume his draft was a wild mix up where he thought adding people to his queue was the equivalent of liking them on Facebook. He managed to be a mere 8 percentage points off the theoretical worst possible draft. TWO of his draft picks managed to be 100+ picks earlier than ECR. He collected Chiefs players like an old lady collecting Hummels, and it is just as unsettling and creepy. His draft strategy seemed to be:
Eric's worst pick was somehow his best pick, a paradox I still don't understand. Tyreek Hill, somewhat unfairly, in the 1st gets hammered as a bad pick as projections seem to be accounting for the fact that his quarterback is one sack away from retirement, and you had Ekeler on the board. Best Pick - JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - 10th Round - 77%
Worst pick - Tyreek Hill, WR - 1st Round - 2% Expected Finish - 12th Place |