We are at the midway point in the season and its a great time to take a deep dive into each team! We are going to take a look at each teams expected wins, positional strengths and weaknesses, and MVPs! Expected wins is just taking the points your team scored and putting that against the average of that week. That gives each team a more level playing field and is a better indicator of future success than simply points scored.
Standings
#1) The Butt Fumbles (6 - 2)
Donn is a great example of the importance of multiple data-sets in analyzing a team. He is the top of the leaderboard in scoring, and both number one in the standings and the power rankings, but his expected record is only 4 - 4. What gives? Donn's performances have be buoyed by a number of huge weeks, scoring over 130 points three out of eight weeks. He has been the luckiest team so far, with an two wins added due to playing inferior opponents. That being said he still is projected to finish number one. Another thing that has helped him along is a league best performance both from the DEF and K slot, which is historically high variance and can come back down to earth. Donn has outscored projections by 6.3% which is nearly three times as good as anyone else in the league, luck or is Donn a savant?
MID SEASON MVP
Josh Allen QB, BUF
Davante Adams would probably take this spot if he didn't get tackled by the best defender in the NFL, COVID-19. Josh Allen and his stupid Cabbage Patch face have helped Donn achieve his status atop the DDFL. Although he had a slow start he has scored over a ton after week 2. While he hasn't been the most valuable QB in the DDFL over the course of the whole season he certainly has been for the last 5 weeks. |
#2) Honey BBQ Badgers (6 - 2)
So you know I said that Donn was the luckiest team. I lied, Travis definitely has been. He has 2 wins over expected, and has had the lowest points against in the league by a good margin. For instance Debbie has had just under 200 points more scored on her a game, that is 23 points a game less! Not only that he continues to get lucky, as he does not have to face Derrick Henry this week! Travis is expected to score only the 7th most points going forward. I don't know what leprechaun Travis is giving sexual favors too, but at some point his luck will run out. We all know that leprechauns are sexually fickle and prone to promiscuity. When looking at Travis' roster there isn't many holes, but depth is a big concern. Outside his regular starters he struggles, getting by far the worst production out of the FLEX spot in the league. Injuries and bye weeks might not be kind to him going forward.
MID SEASON MVP
Travis Kelce, TE KC
Despite his negative points last week Kelce still has been far and away the best TE in the game. With Waller struggling, and Kittle injured, the only TE in the same conversation would be Mark Andrews. He has returned a 2nd round value at a position that it would be hard to do so at. That being said there are storm clouds ahead as the Chiefs offense has failed to sustain two premier pass catchers the last few weeks, and all against poor defenses. I would say its likely that Kelce remains Travis' MVP at the end of the season but it is far from guaranteed. |
#3) Patrick TakemeHolms (5 - 3)
Now from the over-achievers to the under-achievers. Hiller is the first team on our list who has less than his expected wins. Hiller roster has been one of boom and bust. He has found great success at the WR position, and had streamed his way to one of the best TE positions in the league as well. That being said he has had the worst play in the league out of the QB position, 11 percentile points below the next worst. He also has had the worst DEF and K this year. That being said he does have depth at the most important positions, if he can solidify the QB spot he can easily be a force in the playoffs.
MID SEASON MVP
Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
No surprise here, the most valuable WR in the league so far, and it isn't particularly close. Hiller was able to snag him in the 3rd round and it has been the keystone in his success. He has scored over 20 points in 50% of games this year, luckily for the rest of the DDFL we are not in a PPR format because then the gap widens even more. |
#4) Shailene Woodleys (4 - 4)
Here begins the mass of 5 teams at 4 - 4. There is a huge amount of parity this year, with all having a shot at the playoffs. Larry happens to be the top of the mediocre pile. Despite his Laissez-faire approach to fantasy football he has found success, with an expected record above .500. Larry has the top spot for both the QB position and the RB position, a recipe for success, but is dragged down by poor WR play. His WR corps is good for only 9th in the league.
MID SEASON MVP
Tom Brady, QB TB
I feel like I need to take a shower. I never like praising TB12, but he has been the QB #1 in the league, and it only cost Larry a 9th round pick! Every week I expect this geriatric fuck to come out of the tunnel in a walker, but instead we are again treated to the great shadow that has kep the NFL in darkness since the 90s. Jonathan Taylor has a strong case for MVP2 here. |
#5) He.Diggs.the.Dr (4 - 4)
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Sarah has been atop the power rankings all season, but now with one injury to Derrick Henry she went from a threat to the object of pity on the level of Clayton and Debbie. There was always concern for injury with Derrick Henry's usage, and alas it came to fruition. Sarah's standing is just about right. She matched her expected win total and her projections are only 1.7% off of her actual total, she is the picture of middle-of-the road and that is with the MVP of the fantasy season so far. She has the worst odds of all the 4 - 4 teams to make the playoffs, being the only one at sub .500.
MID SEASON MVP
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Rubbing salt into the wound. Yes he is her MVP, and no he will not be playing for a long time... |
#6) GARF (4 - 4)
Now to throw myself a little pity party. No team in the DDFL has been unluckier to start the season, even not counting CMC's injury. While three teams have a worse record than expected, GARF's roster is the only one that has underperformed vs. projections. That being said one look at my roster and the future seems bright, with backup players often being superior to lower end number 1's on other teams. Despite having far and away the best WR corps in the league on paper, my WRs have actually only performed in the 33rd percentile compared to league mates, a fitting lesson that "on paper" doesn't really mean anything.
MID SEASON MVP
Najee Harris, RB PIT
If you asked us who would go number one overall with the first 8 weeks of hindsight it might in fact be Najee Harris. After his first week he has been the #6 RB, and has done it in very consistent fashion scoring over 14 points every single week. Nobody in the league can match his usage either playing 405 snaps, only second to Derrick Henry. |
#7) Duncan Doornuts (4 - 4)
Ellie is the model of inconsistency, ping-ponging between huge games and terrible performances. This manic style of ownership is not a great indicator of future fantasy success, but she is expected to outscore everyone except GARF the rest of the season. She, like GARF, has also been plagued by underperformance, scoring -5.6% below her projections. Ellie has been above average to slightly below average at every position group so far, but after week 9 her most important players will have all cleared their bye week.
MID SEASON MVP
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
Another candidate for the hindsight overall #1. He has been the model of consistency, scoring below double digits only once, when he was injured. His point total isn't everything, as he also has near elite snap counts which makes him a safer bet compared to someone like Jonathan Taylor. |
#8) Orville Sash (4 - 4)
James' season is a bizarre case. He has been both incredibly lucky and incredibly unlucky. He has two wins over expectation, so the scheduling gods have been very kind to him. Larry deciding to shit the bed week 7 and getting matched up against Ellie in week 2 during one of her "episodes" have given him a huge advantage . On the flipside he also has given us the most spectacular beatdown in his 163.48 to 69.58 win over Cougartown. That being said he has been very unlucky with his teams performance, scoring 8.6% less than projected, good for 3rd worst in the league so far. James' units other than TE and K have been below average or worse, especially concerning is the performance at RB as he has the second worst group in the DDFL. He is kind of the Durian of the NFL it may be edible, but it smells of sewage.
MID SEASON MVP
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
I don't think Kyle Pitts ends up as the MVP on just about any team outside of Cougartown. Mike Williams would've been a candidate but the addition of two duds and a bye week to round out the season has dropped him. There is a lot to love about Pitts, but it remains to be seen if he can keep it up without Calvin Ridley to draw attention away from the standout. |
#9) Cougartown (2 - 6)
2021 is a worst-case scenario for Debbie but it was somewhat self-imposed. She has scored the lowest amount of points by a whopping 57.14 points, and has been just dunked on by the rest of the league. Her opponents have scored a league's worst 931.36 points on her. Her team is bad, but they have also performed even worse! Her team has missed projections by 13.4% worst in the league. She made the brazen choice of drafting Mahomes #1 overall, and was proceeded to be taught by the fantasy gods why that is always a bad idea. Mahomes has underperformed (albeit still to a #5 spot), and she lost her top 2 RBs to IR. Without drafting a QB in round one she may have been able to weather that storm, but instead she is struggling to score 70 points every single week, she is the only team projected to score less than 100 in every single remaining game. Debbie's season is like Rotten.com, revolting, but you can't look away.
MID SEASON MVP
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
When not considering draft position Mahomes has been her best player. The only other consideration would be Amari Cooper, who is only the WR #18, which tells you a lot about her roster. |
#10) SS Paycheck Protection (1 - 7)
The dumpster sludge of dumpster sludge, Clayton. What is so confusing about Clayton, is that if you look at his roster you'd say it was mediocre. Not good, but certainly not the poopy purse of the DDFL. Looking position by position, Clayton is no the worst in any one group. Although he is the second worst in QB, TE, & DEF. Some of which will change with Kittle returning, and if you discount Aaron Rodgers first week, his outlook is far better than 2nd worst. He is projected to outscore both Debbie and James going forward, so he definitely isn't an opponent you can't ignore, and I easily see him being the spoiler to many peoples playoff hopes.
MID SEASON MVP
DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARZ
This is a surprise to me, as I would've assumed the #5 RB Kamara would be his MVP, but due to the bye week Hopkins has been more valuable so far. The WR #10 on the season has had his ups and downs, but his spot is in jeopardy with the Kyler Murray injury. |